Rating analytics: Top 10 in the retrospect 2001-2020 Part 2
Kaspars Migla is the creator and founder of a chess website chessratings.top. In his column, he analyzes FIDE standard rating changes, career-highs, rating distribution by country, continent, region, and other rating-related statistics. In the first part of his historical research, he analyzed at the Top 10 of both Open and Women ratings over the 19-year period. In the second part, he looks at the countries delegating most players into the Top 10 as well as the leaders of the rating over 19 years. The number of countries delegating players to the Top 10 Open and Top 10 Women since 2001 is similar – 18 countries and 38 representatives (open) and 17 counties and 43 representatives (women). Number of players in the Top 10 by country since 2001 Open Russia 10Ukraine 3Azerbaijan 3China 3USA 3India 2Netherlands 2France 2Bulgaria 1England 1Hungary 1Israel 1Spain 1Armenia 1Norway 1Slovakia 1Italy 1Cuba 1 Women China 12Russia 8Georgia 5Ukraine 3India 2USA 2Hungary 1Sweden 1Moldova 1Bulgaria 1Romania 1France 1Armenia 1Slovenia 1Lithuania 1Germany 1Kazakhstan 1 As you can see Russia dominates the open section delegating into the Top 10 more than three times as many players as its closest rivals tied for the second place (Ukraine, China, Azerbaijan, and the USA). On the women’s side, the situation is not so lopsided – the first three positions are occupied by China, Russia, and Georgia. Interestingly enough, the players who represented Cuba and Italy when making it into the Top 10 of the Open rating currently play under the US banner: back in 2012 Fabiano Caruana (Italy) made his debut in the Top 10; in 2014 Leinier Dominguez Perez (Cuba) did the same. Which country will be next on the list? Poland looks like a very strong candidate as Jan-Krzysztof Duda (#16 in the world) is rapidly climbing the ratings ladder. On the women’s side, two countries from the bottom joined the list not long ago. Elizabeth Paehtz broke into the Top 10 two years ago, whereas Dinara Saduakassova joined the elite club this year. The next reasonable country-candidate is Iran with Sarasadat Khademalsharieh being #14 in the Women’s rating. Let’s check out what GMs have appeared in the Top 10 most often since 2001. Naturally, young players have an advantage here because monthly rating lists have been published since June 2012. It makes little sense analyzing calendar periods, because if a player falls out from the Top 10, then gets back, then drops out again and returns, then he or she is not on the list for the entire period. With this in mind, we will focus on the number of times a particular player was in the Top 10 (the players from the current top 10 are marked with an asterisk) Open Viswanathan Anand (IND, 2753) 130Vladimir Kramnik (RUS, 2753) 129Magnus Carlsen (NOR, 2863) 117*Levon Aronian (ARM, 2773) 114*Fabiano Caruana (ITA/USA, 2835) 94*Veselin Topalov (BUL, 2735) 90Hikaru Nakamura (USA, 2736) 79Alexander Grischuk (RUS, 2777) 70*Shakhriyar Mamedyarov (AZE, 2764) 64*Wesley So (USA, 2770) 57*Maxime Vachier-Lagrave (FRA, 2778) 57*Sergey Karjakin (RUS, 2752) 57 Women Humpy Koneru (IND, 2586) 126*Yifan Hou (CHN, 2658) 123*Anna Muzychuk (SLO/UKR, 2535) 114*Kateryna Lagno (UKR/RUS, 2546) 110*Judit Polgar (HUN, 2675) 90Nana Dzagnidze (GEO, 2524) 90*Alexandra Kosteniuk (RUS, 2471) 90Wenjun Ju (CHN, 2560) 88*Viktorija Cmilyte (LTU, 2538) 68Mariya Muzychuk (UKR, 2544) 62* No less important is how many times in a row a particular player has held his position in the Top 10. Open: Magnus Carlsen (NOR, 2863) 117*Viswanathan Anand (IND, 2753) 96Fabiano Caruana (ITA/USA, 2835) 85*Vladimir Kramnik (RUS, 2753) 79Hikaru Nakamura (USA, 2736) 68Levon Aronian (ARM, 2773) 56*Maxime Vachier-Lagrave (FRA, 2778) 52*Veselin Topalov (BUL, 2735) 44Wesley So (USA, 2770) 38*Peter Leko (HUN, 2663) 37 Women: Yifan Hou (CHN, 2658) 122*Anna Muzychuk (SLO/UKR, 2535) 114*Humpy Koneru (IND, 2586) 104*Judit Polgar (HUN, 2675) 90Wenjun Ju (CHN, 2560) 75*Mariya Muzychuk (UKR, 2544) 56*Nana Dzagnidze (GEO, 2524) 54*Kateryna Lagno (UKR/RUS, 2546) 53*Alexandra Kosteniuk (RUS, 2471) 48Viktorija Cmilyte (LTU, 2538) 40 It is time to say a couple of words about the leaders. Magnus Carlsen has topped the list for ten years. He passed Topalov in January 2010 and never looked back. The only question that matters, how big his margin from the second place has been. It looks highly unlikely that anyone will be able to outperform the current leader in the nearest future. Just a quick reminder to younger generations… Between two eras of Kasparov and Carlsen, three players, namely Anand, Topalov, and Kramnik also climbed to the very top. That makes five people, but in women’s chess situation is quite different as we see only two names at the top spot over the last 20 years. The transition happened in March of 2015 when Judit Polgar (with rating 2675) passed on the baton to Hou Yifan (with rating 2686). Ironically, it has been Hou’s highest career rating so far. Carlsen became the leader of the open rating aged 19, Hou Yifan did it on the women’s side when she was 21. Who will be next? Photo: Lennart Ootes
Carlsen and Nakamura square off in MCI Final
Hikaru Nakamura and Magnus Carlsen are through to the Magnus Carlsen Invitational final after winning incredibly tense battles against Fabiano Caruana and Ding Liren respectively. On Sunday the event ends with a $115,000 final ($70,000 for the winner, $45,000 for the runner-up), where Magnus takes on perhaps his greatest historic rival in speed chess. Hikaru Nakamura – Fabiano Caruana: 4-2 The day started slowly but suddenly became epic in the 4th game when Fabiano managed to win on demand to force playoffs. Hikaru was distraught and admitted, “everything was starting to spiral out of control”, but a blunder by Caruana in the first blitz game was the boost he needed. It was no surprise that the first games were cautiously played. Hikaru Nakamura later said that he’s used to being tested with the black pieces against Fabiano Caruana, but not today: “it felt to me that in this match he wasn’t putting pressure on me with White, and because of that I felt much more comfortable than I usually do against him”. In the first game, Fabiano got nothing with White, and in fact, it was Hikaru who could dream of more before the game fizzled out into a draw. The second game was also quiet, but the commentators felt that Nakamura got an almost dream version of the Exchange Slav. It was all about the weak b5-pawn until Hikaru finally grabbed it with 51.Qxb5?, seemingly overlooking the simple fork. He managed to gather himself again and after 51…Na3 52.Qb3 Nxb1 it turned out that the zwischenzug 53.exf5! (53.Qxb1? h4! and Black wins) gave him just enough counterplay against the black king to go on to force a draw by perpetual check. The third game was another Giuoco Piano, but it ended up being anything but quiet. Magnus later explained that although computers always give White some kind of edge, “these are the kinds of position which aren’t easy to play for White”. If Fabiano had played 26.Be6 we might have got a quick draw by repetition. He preferred a much more ambitious continuation 26.Qc2 but after 26…Nh4! (the move Nakamura assumed his opponent missed) Black was suddenly much better, and in a few moves, White was dead lost. “It’s inexplicable… he just didn’t sense the moment,” Magnus commented, as Fabiano found himself a point down before having the black pieces in the 4th game. The fourth rapid game, a must-win encounter for Caruana, turned into an epic. Peter Svidler described it as “unbelievably tense” and Magnus Carlsen ultimately summed up, “that was amazing!” Fabiano Caruana played a version of the King’s Indian that was a feared weapon of choice for the young Nakamura, and the position he got was the kind Hikaru used to relish. Black began to punch holes in the white position, though it was too close to call until Caruana finally began to demolish the white kingside: 48…Bxh4! 49.gxh4 was the brutal force required, but what really impressed were the “quiet” follow-up moves: 49…Qf6! 50.Kg1 Qxh4 51.Qd2 Kg6! and soon things were falling apart for Nakamura. That meant that for the first time in the Magnus Carlsen Invitational we were going to blitz playoffs since up to two pairs of 5+3 blitz games would be played before Armageddon. The players had little time to cool down, and Hikaru admitted he hadn’t got his nerves under control. He nevertheless seized control again with Black, but he lamented that 33…d4? 34.Bd2! (the move he’d missed) spoilt his position. The climax of the whole match came twelve moves down the road when Fabiano was down to under 30 seconds on his clock. The commentators and Hikaru spotted the option of 46.Nf6+, which Hikaru thought was simply winning. In fact after 46…Nxf6 47.Rh8+ Kxh8 48.Qxg6 there’s no need whatsoever to resign. Instead, Fabiano played 46.Rc8, a move that may objectively be stronger, but it seems he missed the point of 46…Nf8: 47.Rxc6?? was just a blunder, since after 47…Qxc6 there’s no mate with 48.Nf6+ because the f8-knight is covering the h7-square. Fabi played 48.Ng5+ but resigned shortly afterward. That meant Caruana needed to win on demand again with the black pieces, and at some point, it looked as though he might. “Even though it’s fine objectively… it’s just so stupid”, said Hikaru of his 16.Bc6!?, but although the game was tense Fabiano never really got any control, and when he tried to force something in a drawn ending it led only to defeat. The world no. 2 summed up afterward in his Twitter: “Tough final (for me) match. Almost mounted a comeback but couldn’t recover from that awful blunder in game 5. Still, it was a thoroughly enjoyable event. Congrats to Hikaru and good luck in the final.” Magnus Carlsen – Ding Liren: 2½ – 1/½ The World Champion blundered horribly in Game 2 and was in huge trouble in Game 3 until Ding returned the favor by stumbling into checkmate. Both players rejected chances to draw in Game 4 before Magnus emerged victorious, later commenting, “I haven’t felt this kind of tension in a long while – this was real!” It had seemed as though the drama of the Caruana – Nakamura semi-final the day before would be impossible to beat, but in the end, Ding Liren-Carlsen was every bit as exciting. Both matches got off to quiet starts, and there were none of the outrageous opening choices we’d seen Magnus make when he played Ding in the largely meaningless last round of the preliminary stage. “You see how seriously Magnus is playing when it’s a real match,” commented Alexander Grischuk. In the first game Magnus had White and built up a powerful looking attack on the kingside, but Ding Liren held with an extremely accurate defense until they reached a position where there was no way to break through. Magnus had carefully equalized with Black in Game 2 and was hunting for more, when after 31.Qd3 he sank into thought: Black has just picked up an extra pawn, but the position is dynamically balanced, with lots of options. 31…Rd4 was a move our commentators pointed out almost draws on the spot, while other possibilities include 31…Rc3 or 31…Rc1 – even 31…Nxe4 doesn’t lose. Instead,
FIDE Chess.com Online Nations Cup Rosters: Team India
It is a bit paradoxical that the average age of this team is the highest in the event when India is producing more young chess prodigies than any other country in the world. But the young Indian cubs are not ready yet to make it into the national team: the generational changeover will have to wait a bit more. Adviser to the team: Vladimir Kramnik The World Champion from 2000 to 2007 and the winner of numerous tournaments (including 10 titles in Dortmund), in 1996 Vladimir Kramnik became the youngest world #1 player in history, the record broken by Magnus Carlsen 14 years later. Playing for the Russian team in Chess Olympiads since 1992, he won three gold medals. In January 2019 Vladimir Kramnik announced his retirement from professional chess but expressed intention to focus on chess-related projects. Viswanathan Anand (Std. 2753 Rpd. 2751) The first grandmaster from India (1988), a five-time World Champion, Viswanathan Anand became one of a few players to surpass a 2800 rating mark (in 2006). Throughout his long and prolific chess career, he acquired a legendary status not only in his native India but also all around the world. Considered by many to be the greatest rapid player of his generation he won the World Rapid Chess Championship in 2003 and 2017, the World Blitz Cup in 2000, and numerous other top-level rapid and blitz events. Vidit Gujrathi (Std. 2726 Rpd. 2636) The fourth Indian ever to surpass a 2700 mark, Vidit Gujrathi is the second-highest rated player in his home country after Anand. The winner of the Biel Chess Festival Grand Master (2019) and the runner-up in the Prague Chess Festival Masters (2020), he is currently ranked 23rd in the world. Pentala Harikrishna (Std. 2719 Rpd. 2690) The youngest Indian grandmaster back in 2001, the former World Junior Champion (2004) and Asian Individual Champion (2011), Pentala Harikrishna made it into the top 10 in November of 2016. The Commonwealth Champion (2011), he represented India in numerous Olympiads, World Team Championships, and Asian Championships. Harikrishna is currently ranked 26th in the world. Humpy Koneru (Std. 2586 Rpd. 2483) The reigning World Women’s Rapid Chess Champion (2019), Humpy Koneru became the youngest woman ever to earn the title of grandmaster (this record was later broken by Hou Yifan). A semi-finalist of the Women’s World Championship in 2004, 2008 and 2010, she became a challenger in 2011 but lost the title match to Hou Yifan. The runner up in the FIDE Women’s Grand Prix 2011–12, 2013–14 and 2015–16 Humpy holds second position in the 2019-2020 edition of the series after playing just two tournaments. Koneru is currently ranked second in the world. Adhiban Baskaran (Std. 2659 Rpd. 2624) The former World Under-16 Champion (2008) and Indian champion (2009), Adhiban Baskaran was a member of the Indian bronze medal team at the 41st Olympiad in Tromso (2014) and Solvay, the winner of the Spanishi League (2015). His chess resume includes victories Sants Open Barcelona (2013), Masters Open in Biel (2014), and Reykjavic Open (2018). Adhiban is currently ranked 82nd in the world. Harika Dronavalli (Std. 2515 Rpd. 2450) Three-time bronze medalist in the Women’s World Chess Championship (2012, 2015, and 2017), Harika Dronavalli is the second-highest rated Indian woman after Humpy Koneru. She reached her career-high #5 in the world back in 2016 after winning the FIDE Women’s Grand Prix event at Chengdu. Currently ranked ninth in the world, Harika is tied for 5th position in the Grand Prix 2019-2020 after three tournaments.